UPDATE: AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NOV 29, 2016 – THE TRUDEAU CABINET APPROVED ENBRIDGE’S LINE 3 AND VETOED THEIR NORTHERN GATEWAY PROJECT. AS WELL THEY APPROVED THE KINDER MORGAN TRANS-MOUNTAIN PROJECT. A GOOD DAY FOR ALBERTA, A GOOD DAY FOR CANADA.
The Trudeau Cabinet will announce it’s decision on at least two Enbridge pipeline proposals this afternoon. I anticipate a “go” for Line 3 replacement project and a “no-go” for Northern Gateway. We shall see.
Next we need the Kinder Morgan approval to the west coast along the route of the current TransMoutain line. The Cabinet decision is due by December 19th but it would be good to have that announcement today too. Again, we shall see.
As for the Keystone project, it is not good for Canada and especially Alberta. We already have too much concentration of our oil exports to the USA. Now they are oil self-sufficient and have become our competitor more than a customer. Why, therefore, would we add more capacity to export to them?
That of course depends entirely on us getting more market access via pipelines within Canada. Then we can sell into the world markets because that allow us to reach other export markets from domestic tidewater ports. That would ideally be to the west coast via TransMountain and to the east coasts via EnergyEast, which is in early consultation and hearing stages.
I’m even inclined to look seriously at restricting the amount of additional oil we sell to the States, especially from the oil sands. The price is so deeply discounted, why would we ship or sell any more the Americans when we can get better prices on the open market?
Besides President-Elect Trump wants more of the action on the line as well as renegotiating NAFTA. As I recall, part of the NAFTA deal required Canada to provide assurance of priority oil to the United States for continental security of supply. Is that a smart trade deal for Canada, particularly under the highly uncertain Trump regime? If I am right, we need to negotiate that provision out of NAFTA.
Then who needs Keystone?
For a thorough analysis of the current Canadian pipeline dreams and disasters, including Keystone read more here…